Varcoe: One oil price spike, two Alberta surpluses and an improved economic outlook amid global turbulence
Call it two budget surpluses for the price of one — with a side order of improving economic growth ahead.
Powered by soaring oil prices sparked by the U.S. war with Iran, the Alberta government is now forecasting a $2-billion surplus for the fiscal year that ends next spring and stronger economic performance.
It marks a sharp reversal from February’s gloomy budget projection of a sizable $9.4-billion deficit.
However, here’s the twist.
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Finance Minister Jason Nixon is also predicting that once the books for the previous financial year ending last March are released — they were delayed in June until the fall due to complications surrounding reporting on the province’s restructured health-care organizations — it will also show a surplus for 2025-26.
An exact figure has not yet been released, although last year’s books benefited from higher oil prices in the spring and several other factors, said Nixon.
It’s quite an improvement from the previous $4.1-billion of red ink expected for last year.
“Based on what we have seen so far, with strong energy prices in March and strong investment returns throughout the year, we are also expecting to land in a surplus position for the ‘25-26 fiscal year,” Nixon told reporters Thursday.
“It means we’re on the path to the province’s sixth consecutive surplus year.”
Thursday’s first-quarter fiscal update shows, yet again, the........
