U.S. President Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2026 midterms opened the doors to a question that the market is already thinking about looking ahead to Argentina’s 2027 presidential election.

If President Milei, one of Trump’s closest allies in the region, finds himself facing economic turbulence, will the U.S. Treasury come to the rescue like it did in October 2025? 

The uncertainty comes at a delicate time. The country risk index surpassed 850 points — reaching its highest level since last year’s legislative elections and more than double the low of 402 points it had hit on July 10.

In this context, issuing debt on the international market at a reasonable rate appears out of the question, according to economists and banking sources consulted by this publication, while questions about why the government did not issue debt sooner are emerging in the analysis.

Furthermore, analysts’ projections regarding the global outlook for emerging markets in 2027 also differ.

Market is still closed for Argentina

The debate over Washington’s potential role is gaining traction because the alternative of returning to the international market is not currently available.

“I think there was a misreading of the situation at the beginning of the year, when it was decided to wait for conditions to improve,” said analyst Cristian Buteler.

According to his view, the reasons behind that decision were an economy that had “stopped growing” and an international context in which Trump’s tariff policy was expected to put pressure on prices and push the Federal Reserve to raise rates.

For Buteler, the chances of issuing debt at a reasonable rate as “dwindling,” unless the government agrees to “pay a much higher rate than it would have paid in January of this year.”

Research for Traders head Gustavo Neffa, on the other hand, offers a slightly different view.

While at one point the country risk exceeded 450 points, the figure was “short-lived.” This was followed by the international interest rate storm, “unforced errors” by the government, and a recessionary third quarter.

For Neffa, issuing a single bond in isolation does not change the bigger picture, since the country needs to roll over its January and July maturities every six months.

“Argentina needs a sustained rollover, just as all other countries in the region do,” he stated.

In mid-October, with country risk news 700 basis points, some voices in Washington argued that the government should have issued the bond anyway, even at a higher cost.

Opening up every possible market channel, given the uncertain global context, seemed an unlikely option but was not ruled out at the time.

The argument was based on the fact that the United States, with debt at 128 points of GDP and a deficit of more than six points, will continue to absorb global........

© Buenos Aires Herald