Argentina’s fertility rates have plummeted over the past 10 years. According to health ministry data released in early February, the rate fell 47% between 2014 and 2024.

This is hardly an outlier. Developed nations all over the world, like South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Spain, have been dealing with declining fertility rates for decades now, implementing a slew of policies to try and shift course. 

Argentina’s case, however, is different. For starters, the drop has not been because of a stable downward decades-long trend, but rather a dramatic plunge. Lower fertility rates have traditionally been associated to richer nations, whereas Argentina is a middle-income country.

The reasons for the fall are also not the same. Beyond some of the same underlying causes seen in developed nations — more women entering the workforce, better opportunities for education, and improving living conditions —  there is one key factor that sets the Argentine case apart: a steep decline in teen pregnancies, which fell by 65% in the past decade. 

A recent report from the Argentine Health Ministry shows that 413,135 live babies were born in 2024. Births from a decade prior almost doubled them, with 777,000. 

This is the most dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 70 years in Argentina.

Rafael Rofman, a demographer and top researcher at public policy think tank CIPPEC, told the Herald that, while the fertility rate took a deep dive recently, the phenomenon in Argentina began a century ago, similarly to other countries in the region. 

“It has been gradually decreasing as society modernizes itself, women get more access to work, education universalizes, and children’s rights become more prevalent,” he said.

Argentina’s fertility rate — which measures the average number of births per woman — went from 2.3 in 2014 to an all-time low of 1.23 in 2024. This is below the replacement rate of 2.1, a figure that represents how many births are necessary to maintain the population number through time.

Along with Chile (1.03) and Uruguay (1.25), Argentina’s fertility rate is among the lowest in the region and is similar to Italy, Spain, and Poland. Latin America as a whole has a fertility rate of 1.8. The highest figures are in Africa, where some countries, such as Niger, Angola, and Uganda, have rates of 6 children per woman.

The singularity of Argentina’s case, however, lies beyond the traditional reasons. 

Less teen pregnancies and looser family mandates

Argentina has experienced a profound change over the past decade in terms of gender and reproduction rights. A nationwide movement protesting femicides, coupled with a growing debate over abortion that ended with Congress passing a bill to legalize it in 2020, were some of the factors involved.

One key element of this trend was a state program launched in 2017 called Plan ENIA. The program, made up of sex education campaigns and placement of long-acting birth control, mainly subdermal implants, had cut teen pregnancies in half by the time it was discontinued by the Milei administration in 2024.

Official data from 2005-2023 shows that while the drop began in 2014, births plummeted from 2018 onwards in all age segments. In 2023, births among mothers aged 10-19 decreased by 64% compared to 2005, surpassing the 46% drop in births of mothers of all ages. 

In addition, births among mothers that did not complete their primary education dropped by 77% between 2003 and 2005, and by 13% among mothers who did not finish high school.

A correlation between low income and higher fertility can be seen in a segment of the health ministry’s report showing that poorer provinces are the ones with more births per 1,000 inhabitants: Misiones (12.3), Chaco (11.9), Santiago del Estero (10.8) and Formosa (10.7). The lowest number can be found in Buenos Aires City, the richest district, and Tierra del Fuego, the least populated province, both with 6.9 births per 1,000 inhabitants.

The average age for having children is gradually growing older as well. Argentine women had an average of 1.23 children in 2024. The average age at which they became mothers went from 27 to 31 in the past decade.

The uneven nature of care tasks

Experts fail to agree on the importance of economic reasons for the fall. While some say that falling wages has some bearing on the decision, others highlight that in periods of similar economic crisis, births remained stable and that fertility is higher in poorer countries.

For economist at NGO Futuros Mejores Lucía Cirmi Obón, a major issue is the uneven distribution of care tasks, which still mostly falls on women. 

In addition, those tasks are still considered something of private family life with little state intervention, said the economist, who was an undersecretary of equality policies and director of care policies at the now extinct Women, Genders, and Diversity Ministry between 2019 and 2023.

“The pro-natalist policies that have worked the best are those in which an entire society is willing to take care of its newest members, like in France or Scandinavian countries.” Argentina, however, “is not willing to care collectively” for children, the elderly, or the sick, Cirmi Obón stated. 

This issue is also a major reason for fertility decline in Asian countries, where women state they don’t want to have children due to a widespread sexist culture.

The challenges of an aging population

The consequences of an aging population are already visible in Argentina. While schools previously struggled to keep up with demand for spots, now they have fewer and fewer students.

“It is much more likely for children to have living grandparents than it was before. We are shifting from a society of grandchildren to a society of grandparents,” Rofman said.

As in the other countries going through similar issues, the most critical issue will be the pension system. The debate over changes to the system has been raging for years, and the current government has already signaled its desire to introduce a bill with that end. 

However, there are no clear prospects of when it would be debated in Congress or what it would entail.

“The challenge will be to stop thinking older people have to subsist only with the contributions made by active employees, because that is not working,” Cirmi Obón said. She believes that part of the funds need to come from taxes instead. 

This option seems hard to implement in an Argentina where President Javier Milei has a stern stance against taxes and has eliminated several of them.

Rofman, meanwhile, believes that the key to solve this issue is for the decreasing number of workers to be more productive — not by working more, but rather by being more efficient. This, he said, can be reached by improving their working conditions and skills: more education, better infrastructure and resources, and more and better use of technology.

Improving the public health system in order to attend to an elderly population, building more accessible streets and buildings, and providing resources for those who want to enlarge their families are also issues that must be addressed.

“Anything you do takes a lot of time to have an effect on the economy and people’s life conditions,” Rofman warned. “We are not improving what we need to improve to have a different future.”

© Buenos Aires Herald