In its first term, Labor figured out how to deal with inflation. That playbook won’t work this time

April 20, 2026 — 5:00am

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The Albanese government is confronting two uncomfortable facts. The first is clear: the political landscape has become incredibly rocky. But the second will cause it more concern: that landscape is about to become even rockier.

When the government delivers its next budget, in three weeks and a day, that is the environment in which it will be operating.

To get some sense of just how fraught things have become, cast back to January, when Labor began hinting at a reform budget. Soon, it seemed this meant changes to housing taxes. Inflation had begun rising in the preceding months, which meant that any talk of raising taxes could be difficult. Still, it was well beyond time for such changes: it seemed possible that voters would be receptive.

Then the US and Israel attacked Iran. A fuel crisis threatened. What did all this mean for the budget? Would the government retreat to safety, away from reform?

But then another twist: in the South Australian election, One Nation matched its polling success with actual success. This placed an argument on the other side of the scales: a government needing to appease angry voters could not afford to delay action on housing inequality further.

The war in Iran kept going. Events became more uncertain. And that is where they remain today.

If you were advising the........

© Brisbane Times