A ceasefire is good. But Trump’s impact on rates is just starting

April 13, 2026 — 5:00am

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It is difficult to see Donald Trump’s war on Iran as anything other than a major own goal.

And who’s going to pay the economic cost?

It’s likely, we all will.

I’m not only referring to higher prices at the petrol bowser, I’m also talking about higher inflation and interest rates.

War a bigger economic wrecking ball than fires, floods or financial crisis

It’s now been about six weeks since the Iran war broke out, and economically speaking, a couple of things are fairly clear.

First, the economic legacy of this conflict will be a major disruption to energy markets, which will result in higher inflation, even if last week’s ceasefire holds.

In other words, we’ll be paying a price for the conflict through goods being more expensive than otherwise and, most likely, home owners will cop higher interest rates than they would have.

These outcomes are likely even if Australia avoids the worst-case scenario of running out of fuel.

Second, it’s also becoming clear that global sharemarkets do not view the war and its fallout as a massive economic shock on par with COVID-19 or the global financial crisis. But the sharemarket is not the economy.

Last week, Australia’s sharemarket had........

© Brisbane Times