‘Checkmate’: Russia is winning the war as Ukraine runs out of friends

October 21, 2026 — 10:46am

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The Kremlin is counting the Trump administration’s latest turn against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a major triumph and, coupled with political upheaval in Europe, a sign that Western support for Ukraine is finally crumbling.

In the 10 days since Vladimir Putin last spoke by telephone with the American president, Donald Trump has announced a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies to the global market, throttled Ukraine’s access to vital battlefield satellite systems, put sweeping new sanctions against Russian on hold, as well as moved even more firmly to Russia’s side by calling for Zelensky’s ouster and holding up supplies of critical interceptor missiles.

On Monday, Trump blasted the Ukrainian president again, saying it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine”.

The stakes seem higher than ever. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Oslo this week to meet Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected participate via video link.

“The aim is to put diplomatic efforts on a more constructive path,” Store said.

Zelensky said on Sunday that if Washington aligned with Russia, Ukraine would not survive.

“If the United States will support Putin – it’s unbelievable, it’s a tragedy,” he told NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday. “If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail. And we will not be able to stand.”

While the European leaders and Zelensky might hope to use the Oslo meeting to steer the Trump administration to a tougher stance against Moscow, Kremlin officials have been crowing that victory over Ukraine is on the horizon, and that Trump’s recent moves are steps toward an ever closer alignment between Washington and Moscow.

Trump’s recent ratcheting up of pressure on Zelensky could mean the US president is again seeking to strong-arm the Ukrainian leader into a deal on terms favourable to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Witkoff is expected to brief Putin following the Oslo talks.

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