Current market pricing implies that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut short-term interest rates at the mid-June monetary policy meeting. Futures imply that by the end of the year, the central bank will have reduced its target for the federal funds rate target by 75 basis points to 100 basis points. Last week, Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on these expectations. He noted that because the Trump’s administration’s tariff policies will pressure prices higher and depress........

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