The Pentagon’s ongoing review of the United States military presence in Europe could become one of the most consequential defense-policy decisions of the Trump administration. Although the review is focused on Europe, its implications are likely to extend well beyond the continent. The decisions made in Washington could affect NATO’s future, America’s ability to respond to crises in the Middle East, its military posture in Asia, and the broader relationship between the United States and its allies.

For decades, American forces have served as a central component of Europe’s security architecture. The size of the US military presence has declined significantly since the Cold War, when hundreds of thousands of American troops were stationed across Europe. Today, roughly 68,000 US military personnel are permanently assigned to the continent, with thousands more rotating through European bases and exercises.

The Trump administration has signaled that it wants to reconsider this posture. Plans announced in May called for the withdrawal of approximately 5,000 US troops from Germany, generating opposition from lawmakers in both parties. The following month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a broader six-month review of the US military presence in Europe ahead of the NATO summit.

The review is expected to produce recommendations before the end of the year. Yet relatively little is publicly known about its internal discussions. That uncertainty makes it difficult for allies to determine what the eventual changes will mean for their own defense planning.

Several possible approaches illustrate the choices facing the Pentagon.

The first would be to reduce the number of US forces stationed in Europe while simultaneously reducing the overall size of the American military. This would provide a relatively straightforward way of lowering America’s military footprint on the continent. The Obama administration followed a somewhat similar approach in 2013, when approximately 10,000 US troops were withdrawn from Europe.

However, the current........

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