Israel’s seizure of the Ali Al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon should not be viewed merely as another battlefield development. It raises a far more consequential question: If Hezbollah’s military presence in the area has been dismantled, what reason does Israel have to remain-and will it actually withdraw?

Under the Lebanon-Israel framework agreement, Israel is expected to hand over areas it occupies to the Lebanese army once Hezbollah and other non-state armed actors have been cleared from them. On paper, the sequence appears straightforward: remove Hezbollah, transfer control to the Lebanese state and withdraw.

But Israel’s actions on the ground suggest that the reality may be very different.

The destruction of roads, construction of barriers and establishment of military positions do not look like preparations for an imminent withdrawal. They look like preparations for a prolonged presence. Israel appears to be creating facts on the ground that could eventually transform southern Lebanon into a de facto buffer zone under its military control.

That is the real concern facing Lebanon.

Israel has repeatedly argued that its military presence is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its capabilities. That argument carries weight only as long as a credible armed threat remains close to the border. If Hezbollah’s infrastructure has been dismantled and the Lebanese army is prepared to assume responsibility for the area, continued Israeli occupation becomes much harder to justify.

Yet history offers Lebanon little reason for optimism.

Israel has previously maintained military positions in Lebanon for extended periods, and temporary security arrangements have often developed into long-term realities. The concern in Beirut is therefore that Israel may regard the elimination of Hezbollah’s immediate military threat not as the end of its mission, but as an opportunity to establish a new strategic foothold.

Some Lebanese factions sympathetic to Israel argue that Tel Aviv has no reason to remain in Lebanon once Hezbollah is removed. The Lebanese Forces and the Phalangists have consistently blamed Hezbollah for the country’s insecurity while largely dismissing concerns about Israeli territorial or strategic ambitions.

Their position will face a serious test if Israel refuses to withdraw.

If Israeli forces remain after Hezbollah’s military infrastructure has been eliminated, the issue........

© Blitz