Armenia stands once again at a crossroads in its foreign policy, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan trying to balance between its traditional ally, Russia, and a growing political and economic pull from the European Union and the United States. However, as geopolitical tensions rise and Moscow’s patience thins, Yerevan’s strategy is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Since coming to power in 2018 after the "Velvet Revolution," Pashinyan has attempted to recalibrate Armenia’s foreign policy without provoking direct confrontation with Moscow. Yerevan remains a member of Russian-led institutions such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), yet it has shown increasing interest in deepening ties with the European Union through the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2017.

The EU has become Armenia’s largest donor and trading partner, and Brussels recently pledged hundreds of millions of euros in economic and institutional assistance.

For decades, Armenia relied heavily on Russia as its principal security guarantor. Moscow maintained military presence in the country, controlled major sectors of Armenia’s energy infrastructure, and acted as Yerevan’s primary strategic partner. Yet, walking this tightrope is becoming harder as Armenia grows frustrated with Moscow’s waning security support, particularly after the........

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