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Demographic transformation amid the crises of the XXI century

17 0
10.06.2026

Demographic change is becoming one of the most powerful forces shaping the twenty-first century. Across Europe and East Asia, populations are aging rapidly, fertility rates are falling below replacement levels, and labor markets are tightening. At the same time, migration flows are increasing, driven by economic inequality, conflict, climate pressures, and demographic imbalances between regions.

The global population has continued its steady rise, surpassing 8 billion people in 2022 and currently estimated at around 8.2–8.3 billion according to UN-based projections. This growth reflects a long-term trajectory: approximately 6 billion people in 1998, 7 billion in 2010, and over 8 billion by 2022.

Projections suggest that the world population could reach 9 billion by around 2037 and approach 10 billion by 2060. In some long-term scenarios, the global population is expected to increase by about 2 billion people by 2050 - from roughly 7.7 billion to 9.7 billion - and could peak at nearly 11 billion by the end of the century, despite a continued decline in fertility rates worldwide.

A striking feature of the current demographic structure is regional imbalance. About 59% of the global population lives in Asia, 19% in Africa, 9% in Europe, 8% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and roughly 5% in North America.

In many European countries, fertility rates have dropped well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. As a result, the proportion of elderly citizens is rising steadily. Japan remains the most advanced........

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