The shrinking of the Caspian Sea is emerging as one of the most consequential environmental transformations of the 21st century, with far-reaching ecological, economic, and geopolitical implications. Although global discourse often focuses on rising sea levels caused by climate change, inland water bodies like the Caspian are experiencing the opposite trend-rapid desiccation driven by a complex interplay of climatic and human factors.

At the core of this decline is global warming. Rising temperatures across the Caspian basin have intensified evaporation rates, outpacing the volume of water entering the sea through precipitation and river inflows. This imbalance in the hydrological cycle has already been observed through satellite-based radar altimetry, including monitoring systems such as NASA’s Global Water Monitor, which shows a steady drop in water levels since the mid-1990s.

A critical contributing factor is the reduced inflow from rivers, particularly the Volga River, which historically........

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