China's industrial machine is producing an ever-growing volume of goods, but the global market's capacity to absorb them is beginning to look increasingly limited. Trade barriers are rising, domestic demand remains weak, and Chinese companies continue to expand capacity while cutting prices. This model could create serious problems not only for China, but also for commodity markets and competing manufacturers around the world.

According to Foreign Affairs, China's trade surplus has reached record levels over the past two decades. In 2025, it totaled nearly $1.2 trillion. China already accounts for about 30% of global manufacturing output, and by 2030 that share could rise to 45%. The OECD has argued that a significant part of this industrial expansion has been supported by state subsidies.

Chinese companies often continue increasing production even as profit margins decline. The automotive industry offers one of the clearest examples. China reportedly has enough capacity to produce around 25 million electric and hybrid vehicles annually, while domestic demand is closer to 12 million. Across all types of vehicles, the country's total annual production capacity may be as high as 55 million units.

The consequences are already visible abroad. The European Union has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, while........

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