Kazakhstan’s growing interest in exporting more of its oil through Azerbaijan may initially appear to be just another energy-sector development. But Astana’s consideration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and Baku-Supsa pipelines as additional export routes points to something much broader: Azerbaijan’s potential emergence as one of the Caspian region’s key energy transit hubs.

Kazakhstan currently relies heavily on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to export its oil. The pipeline carries most of Kazakhstan’s crude through Russian territory to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. As regional geopolitical and security dynamics continue to evolve, however, Kazakhstan has increasingly looked at alternative routes that could diversify its export infrastructure, and this, in particular, creates an important opportunity for Azerbaijan.

First of all, one of the most significant alternatives is the Trans-Caspian route. Kazakh oil can be transported across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and then moved westward through existing infrastructure. One option is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries crude from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Türkiye to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Another is the Baku-Supsa route, which connects Azerbaijan with Georgia’s Black Sea........

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