Recent messages from the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia are increasingly strengthening the impression that the conflict that shaped relations between the two countries for more than three decades is moving into the past, while peace and practical cooperation are becoming more realistic prospects. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's latest statement suggests that Armenia is preparing to resume exports to Azerbaijan, potentially paving the way for more balanced trade between the two countries.

This development is important not simply because of the value of the goods that may initially cross the border, but because of what it represents. Since gaining independence, Azerbaijan and Armenia have never developed normal, direct and mutually beneficial trade relations. Their borders remained closed for decades, while the conflict prevented the emergence of ordinary economic ties. In recent years, however, limited economic interaction has started to appear, most notably through Azerbaijan's fuel exports to Armenia. The emergence of Armenian exports to Azerbaijan would therefore represent another step toward establishing a genuine commercial relationship.

Trade can play a particularly important role in consolidating peace. It would be unrealistic to claim that trade alone can guarantee a lasting settlement, but economic interdependence can create powerful incentives for both sides to preserve stability. When businesses, consumers, transport operators and energy companies begin benefiting from cross-border........

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