US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a potential 25 per cent tariff on countries trading with Iran marks a new escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against Tehran. Unlike traditional sanctions aimed directly at Iran, this proposal introduces a secondary tariff mechanism, targeting third countries and global supply chains. If implemented, analysts warn, the move could disrupt global trade flows, increase market volatility, and accelerate fragmentation of the world economy - while having a more limited but still notable impact on Azerbaijan.

To assess the broader implications, Azernews spoke with Dr Frank Musmar, a political analyst and expert in the Middle East, Turkiye and the Caucasus and Azerbaijani economist Khalid Karimli.

A shift from sanctions to global trade pressure

According to Musmar, the proposed tariff represents a strategic shift in US policy - from direct sanctions to coercive trade leverage.

“The 25 per cent tariff is designed to force countries to choose between access to the Iranian market and access to the much larger US economy,” he said. “This approach significantly expands the scope of pressure by embedding Iran-related sanctions directly into global trade relations.”

For Iran, the consequences could be severe. Years of sanctions have already left the economy grappling with high inflation, currency depreciation, and rising food prices. Additional trade barriers would further restrict access to foreign goods and hard currency, worsening shortages and social pressures. Key export sectors,........

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