The war in Ukraine has entered another of those phases in which diplomacy and military pressure move in parallel, but neither is yet strong enough to break the deadlock. Kyiv and Moscow remain separated by fundamental disagreements over territory, security guarantees and the political future of Ukraine, while the battlefield continues to shape the terms of any eventual negotiation. The latest meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila, focused on Ukraine and broader bilateral issues, is therefore significant less as evidence of an imminent peace deal than as proof that the channels between Washington and Moscow remain open. Lavrov reiterated Moscow's readiness for a political settlement while insisting that further Western arms supplies to Ukraine were unacceptable. In his turn, Rubio has said the war was the primary focus of the meeting.

That distinction matters because diplomacy can reduce the risk of miscalculation, but it cannot, by itself, resolve the underlying strategic dispute. Russia continues to seek terms that would constrain Ukraine's military and geopolitical choices, while Ukraine and its Western partners remain unwilling to accept a settlement that would reward territorial conquest or leave the country exposed to renewed aggression. NATO, meanwhile, has reinforced its deterrence posture and reaffirmed substantial military support for Kyiv. At its Ankara summit, the Alliance pledged at least €70bn in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine for both 2026 and 2027.

This creates the central danger of the current phase: the war may become harder to end precisely because neither side is yet prepared to accept the political price of ending it.

However, the risk of escalation is real. According to some experts, Russia could intensify missile and drone attacks, target Ukrainian decision-making centres or critical infrastructure, or increase pressure on NATO........

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