Ever since the onset of the Gulf conflict - the US and Israel against Iran, the world economy has found itself in a precarious 'tightrope' situation. With every statement and development, we collectively hold our breath, bracing for the next potential impact. However, in the past week, there's been a glimmer of hope. As the saying goes, sometimes a "good thing comes out of the worst" situations. Following the talks in Islamabad last weekend, the involved parties have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, a small but significant step forward.

Since then, we could dare to say that many positive developments are in motion. Such as sides looking forward to a new phase of talks this week, yet again, in Islamabad. But, given the nature of these 'hot-cold' developments, many analysts caution that this progress remains delicate and fragile.

Regardless of when and under what conditions this conflict might ultimately find resolution, we must acknowledge that it will take a considerable amount of time for the economies of the region and many nations worldwide to regain their footing. The longer the conflict drags on, the more pronounced that challenge will become. So, as we navigate these uncertain times, we hold on to hope, cherishing every sign of peace and collaboration.

One of the clearest early indicators has emerged in our region, Azerbaijan's neighbouring country, Georgia, where authorities have already revised down tourism revenue projections for 2026, from $5 billion to $4.9 billion, reflecting growing uncertainty.

Even under a relatively contained scenario, analysts estimate that a short-term conflict lasting between one and six months could shave off around $220 million from Georgia’s tourism income. This signals a broader regional vulnerability: in the eyes of long-haul travelers from markets such as the United States, China, and the European Union, the South Caucasus is often perceived as a single, interconnected destination.........

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