Goldman Sachs’s $5 per barrel increase in its oil price forecast may at first glance seem like a normal piece of news about the global energy market. However, for the Azerbaijani economy, which is significantly dependent on oil revenues, this change has broader macroeconomic implications. It is especially noteworthy that this decision coincides with a period when Azerbaijan’s foreign exchange reserves have reached record levels, deposits in the banking sector have grown, and the country’s current account surplus is maintained.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent oil prices to average $85 in December 2026 and $80 in 2027. WTI forecasts are $80 and $75, respectively. The bank’s forecast is based on the assumption that disruptions in shipping in the Middle East will continue until next year. However, the $5 increase in the forecast also indicates that a large and long-term oil shortage is not expected in the market.

The most important indicator for Azerbaijan is the price of oil actually exported by the country. On September 8, the price of Azeri Light reached $107.31. This is $42.31, or about 65 percent, higher than the $65 oil price used in the preparation of Azerbaijan’s........

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