The last time Ursula von der Leyen flew to Baku, in the summer of 2022, Europe was in the grip of an energy emergency. Russia had made energy supply its leverage and its weapon, as some would say, gas reserves across Europe were fragile, and Brussels required a new ally, fast. Against this background, the strategic energy memorandum was much more an emergency response than a vision for the future. Four years later, von der Leyen returns to Baku. The background and the parameters of the discussion have changed drastically.

This particular trip, which will happen today, on July 1, is the first to the region since the signing of the agreement in 2022 and also the first after both Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace treaty in the White House in August. The European Commission has listed four major areas of priority: assisting the peace process, energy cooperation, improved transport connectivity, and increased digitisation connections. In actual fact, these four headings constitute one overarching question: where the EU stands in relation to the South Caucasus, which has reconfigured itself without awaiting action from Brussels.

Azerbaijan's EU trade share stands at approximately 43% of total foreign trade, making Brussels simultaneously one of the country's largest partners and, interestingly, inconsistent at particular times. Indeed, energy is the most easily quantified component. Post-2022 memorandum, which envisaged bringing Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU to 20 billion cubic metres per year until 2027,........

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