There is a particular quality to diplomatic visits that arrive a little late. It brings the vigor of earnest intentions, tinged by the 'small embarrassment' of being too late in realizing something obvious, the feeling that everyone there knows that things could have been much closer much earlier, if only it hadn’t been for the vagaries of history. The two-day visit by Ursula von der Leyen to the South Caucasus this week, Baku on July 1 and Yerevan on July 2, carried that special character. Two cities, two leaders, two entirely different sets of talks, and one thing is certain: the EU has finally realized the importance of this region.

However, the setting could not be more advantageous for the EU than it has been in decades. The historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was signed by the two nations in the White House of US President Donald Trump in August 2025, putting an end to their decades-old dispute over Karabakh and creating the opportunity for a new transport route between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan enclave. Despite, or maybe thanks to, little skirmishes, threats coming from Russia, including several economic sanctions against Armenia in the form of prohibitions on importing Armenian flowers, brandy, wine, fruits, and other produce ahead of the elections, Civil Contract, headed by Pashinyan, took the win in Armenia's June election campaign. People, perhaps, chose peace and prosperity.

Now, it is more appropriate to analyze the visit in two spectra. Firstly, the Baku leg of the trip was, in tone and substance, a conversation between equals, or at least between parties that have learned to treat each other as such. President Ilham Aliyev noted at the joint press conference that Azerbaijan's natural gas exports to EU member states have increased by almost 65% since the 2022 strategic energy memorandum was signed, that half of all Azerbaijani gas exports now flow to the European Union, and that the EU is Azerbaijan's single largest trading partner, accounting for over 40% of its total trade. Von der Leyen, for her part, was explicit about what that relationship has meant: that when Russia 'weaponised' energy and cut off supplies to Europe, Azerbaijan stepped up. The gratitude was genuine, and the strategic dependency it expressed was equally so.

What was new about July 1st was the architecture of what follows next. Von der Leyen launched the European Global Gateway........

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