Less than a month from midterm elections, here are the four factors that will likely matter most:

First, the tendency of the incumbent party (the one controlling the White House) to lose seats in such elections—an average of 30-plus in the House and three to four in the Senate since World War II—is of course magnified when the incumbent is an unpopular one, as Donald Trump most certainly is.

It isn't just that Trump is unpopular (over 20% "underwater" in the latest RealClearPolitics composite), but that a large chunk of those who disapprove don't just disapprove but thoroughly despise.

No political figure in our time, perhaps ever, mobilizes opposition the way Trump does, and those who so intensely oppose him are unlikely to pass up the opportunity to express those sentiments on Nov. 3.

Second, and also working against the GOP, is the peculiar nature of Trump's support within the party, in particular the often-noted low voting propensity of his MAGA minions. "Traditional" Reagan Republicans have now been essentially replaced by a MAGA cohort that is far less ideological, simple-mindedly populist, and much less loyal to the party than they are to Trump.

As difficult as it is to believe, there was a time, not that long ago, when Republicans enjoyed a significant advantage in off-year elections because their voters were more........

© Arkansas Online