Global focus shifts to hot spots beyond Iran

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While an agreement to end the Iran crisis has yet to be signed, attention is increasingly turning to other geopolitical challenges that might become hot spots in the future. Perhaps the key takeaway from the crisis in the Middle East is the huge human and economic cost of the war, including in energy markets. While a global recession may be averted, the costs have been eye-wateringly high, including with well over 3,000 people reportedly killed. Moreover, the worst economic ramifications are potentially still to be felt in some nations, as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank flagged at their spring meetings a few weeks ago. In the wake of the Middle East crisis much international attention is turning to other geopolitical fissures that could also have profound implications for the global economy. This includes the South China Sea, a major waterway where about $4 trillion of goods is transported a year, or about 30 percent of global maritime trade. The emerging fault lines in the waters include continuing tensions with not just the US, but also other countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei that are frequently in dispute with China about this key economic channel. Any significant conflict, which could result in an air and sea blockade, or direct attack on Taiwan, is........

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