Europe's Diesel Problem

An unexpected global diesel crisis has emerged against the backdrop of armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. 

Toth Istvan | October 3, 2026

An unexpected global diesel crisis has emerged against the backdrop of armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This crisis has predictably reached a critical juncture, with President Trump announcing that he is seriously considering banning U.S. diesel exports. Such an embargo would severely impact the economies of Great Britain and France, whose leaders spearheaded opposition to his administration and openly celebrated his temporary setbacks.

Months of Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have removed 1.6 million barrels of diesel per day from the global market. Replacing these losses requires additional refining capacity, but it is unclear where this capacity will come from.

In this context, the U.S. Gulf Coast has become the world’s supplier of last resort. American diesel exports reached a record 1.6 million bpd in August, up from 1 million bpd in February and representing 20 percent of the global diesel trade. However, U.S. refineries are already operating at nearly 97-98 percent capacity. Once storage facilities are full, refining will be curtailed, reducing not only diesel output but also gasoline and jet fuel output.

American Interests First

Even without regard for past grievances with Europeans, the occupant of the Oval Office has compelling domestic reasons to impose a diesel export ban. The U.S. midterm........

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