How Republicans Lost The Senate, And What It Could Cost Them

This was more than the usual midterm penalty for the party in power.

Josh Kantrow | November 8, 2026

In three private group chats, I predicted that Democrats would win 55 or 56 Senate seats this year.  People laughed and reminded me that I had backed Nikki Haley and was never all in for Trump.  As of this writing, Democrats hold 54 seats, and two races are still being counted.  In Mississippi, Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith by a few dozen votes out of nearly a million cast.  In Alaska, Mary Peltola has edged ahead of Dan Sullivan with about three quarters of the vote in.  I’ve studied both counts, and I expect Democrats to win both.

This was more than the usual midterm penalty for the party in power.  Republicans nominated candidates who couldn’t win, and in most of those races, Donald Trump made the pick.

In Texas, John Cornyn, a four-term senator, had run ahead of the Republican ticket for years.  His campaign warned all spring that Ken Paxton would hand the seat to Democrats.  Trump endorsed Paxton anyway, complaining that Cornyn “was not supportive” when times were tough.  Texas now has its first Democratic senator elected in almost forty years, and Paxton lost by double digits.

Trump carried South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024.  He endorsed and campaigned for Darline Graham over better-known Republicans, and she lost to a pediatrician who had never run for office.

In North Carolina, Thom Tillis cast one vote Trump didn’t like, and Trump pushed him into retirement.  His replacement, former RNC chairman Michael Whatley, had never been on a ballot.  Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election, beat him by about 20 points.  The top Republican super-PAC pulled its money before Election Day.  With a serious nominee, that seat was winnable.

These losses also show that Republican voters still care about candidate........

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