In Iranian political discourse, major conflicts are often described as “imposed wars” – wars that Iran believes have been forced upon it by external powers rather than chosen by Tehran. Iranian leaders identify three conflicts in these terms: The Iran–Iraq War (1980-1988), the Twelve-Day War launched by Israel in June 2025 and later joined by the United States, and the current war that began on February 28, 2026, when Israel and the US launched attacks on Iran.

The 45-year gap between the first and second conflicts reflects an important feature of Iran’s strategic outlook. Despite its rhetoric and displays of military preparedness, the country’s political and military leadership has historically sought to avoid direct war because of its heavy political and economic costs.

This pattern also reflects a deeper tendency within the leadership: An aversion to situations that take them by surprise or for which they feel unprepared. Iran’s response to the Arab Spring, for example, was marked by confusion because the uprisings caught the leadership off guard. A similar sense of surprise shaped its reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.

This strategic culture helps explain Iran’s response to the current war: Rather than seeking outright victory, Tehran’s priority is to ensure that any attempt to overthrow it carries prohibitive regional and global costs.

Iran’s preference for avoiding direct military confrontation has also been evident in its dealings with Western powers. Concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme intensified in August 2002, when the first images of the Natanz nuclear facility were published. In the years that followed, Iranian officials engaged in numerous rounds of negotiations – first with the European powers: The United Kingdom, France and Germany, and later with the P5 1 group: The US, Russia, China, the UK and France, together with Germany. These negotiations reflected Tehran’s longstanding preference to manage confrontation through diplomacy rather than direct military conflict.

The situation changed dramatically when the US, under Donald Trump’s first administration, withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. From that point onward, Washington adopted a far more aggressive posture towards Iran, while Israel........

© Al Jazeera