Reports and rumours about a decline in President Kais Saied’s health underscore the classic political concept that the physical state of a leader deeply affects a country’s “body politic”. For the first time since 2011, Tunisia seems to be experiencing a dual climate of national distress and political change.

This concern is amplified by two factors working in tandem. One is the failure of public utilities: water and electricity cuts in sweltering summer conditions have created severe socioeconomic pressure that has spilled over into a broader climate of political dissent. The other is the undoing of the North African country’s fledgling democratisation.

How do structural constraints and institutional rigidities form the foundation of Tunisia’s current crisis?

The ‘July of discontent’

Traditionally, January, one of Tunisia’s coldest months, has marked periods of high-stakes political shifts, student and worker protests, and civil rights marches. The January 1980 riots weakened Habib Bourguiba’s grip on power, while the January 2011 protests ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. That civic energy has now resurfaced in a “hot July”, amid intense summer heat, street mobilisation and heightened public friction over the past two weeks.

For the first time, protesters are displaying “Degage!” banners, asking Saied to “Get out”.

A recent drop in temperatures has brought some respite from the summer heat, but not from the pressures fuelling public anger. In some regions, water and electricity cuts have lasted up to two weeks, compounding the strain on households already facing severe economic hardship. These failures come on the heels of mass protests in late 2025 over toxic pollution from a phosphate-processing plant in the coastal city of Gabes, in southeastern Tunisia.

Successive post-revolution parliaments debated Tunisia’s unreliable electricity grid, costly energy bills, water rationing and transition to renewable energy. The 2015 energy law passed by parliament paved the way for non-state energy producers, with particular emphasis on renewable energy technologies. In 2022, there was also a plan to produce and even export so-called green hydrogen.

While planning for future energy needs is necessary, it will not solve the current........

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