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The oil logic behind Trump’s war on Iran

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18.03.2026

The United States and Israel say their escalating military assault on Iran is about nuclear proliferation, deterrence and regional security. But recent developments suggest another, older logic at work. The deeper objective is not simply weakening Iran or forcing regime change. It is safeguarding the mobility of oil – the lifeblood of the global capitalist economy.

Consider the recent US strike on Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export terminal. The island sits just off the coast of the Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes each day. Any disruption there would reverberate immediately across global energy markets. Recent reports highlight how sensitive oil prices are to the threat of disruption in the strait.

Yet the most revealing feature of the Kharg Island strike is not simply that it occurred, but what was deliberately spared.

US President Donald Trump publicly celebrated the operation, declaring that American forces had destroyed “every MILITARY target” on the island. At the same time, he emphasised that the oil infrastructure itself had been left untouched. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said he had chosen not to “wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island”, warning that such restraint could change if Iran threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

This distinction is revealing. Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude exports. Destroying its oil terminals would have dramatically disrupted global supply and likely sent prices soaring. Instead, Washington opted for a calibrated strike: military damage without energy paralysis.

The implication is difficult to ignore. The US is prepared to weaken........

© Al Jazeera