Adam Isacson

Adam Isacson

Director for Defense Oversight

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With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

This update is later than usual because of staff travel and congressional testimony in recent days. It reflects events as of the end of January 17, making it slightly out of date. Weekly publication will resume on time on Friday, January 24.

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Media are reporting that about 100 executive orders will follow Donald Trump’s inauguration, many related to the border and migration. We can expect an end to the CBP One mobile phone app and humanitarian parole programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicarguans, and Venezuelans. We can expect a push to renew “Remain in Mexico,” possibly Title 42 and “safe third country” agreements: programs that require the cooperation of Mexico and other nations. A gigantic piece of spending legislation to fund this, plus a mass deportation plan, may soon move in Congress.

The Wall Street Journal reported that ICE may begin raids seeking to detain undocumented migrants in Chicago immediately after Inauguration Day. Near Bakersfield, California, Border Patrol agents spread fear among farmworkers by carrying out a large-scale operation of their own. Officials like “Border Czar” Tom Homan are promising conflict with so-called “sanctuary cities” as they call for more detention and deportation capacity, while Mexico prepares to receive large numbers of people.

Enough Democratic senators voted “yes” to break a filibuster and permit likely passage of the Laken Riley Act. The Republican-led bill, named for a woman murdered by a Venezuelan migrant, would allow migrants with pending immigration cases to be detained even if just arrested and charged with a petty crime, and would empower state attorneys-general to challenge aspects of U.S. immigration law in court. The Senate’s cloture vote passed with the votes of 10 of 45 Democratic-aligned senators present, all of them from electorally competitive states.

December 2024 saw the fewest Border Patrol apprehensions per day of the entire Biden administration. The administration’s June rule barring most asylum access between ports of entry is the main reason. For the second time ever, more migrants were encountered at the official border crossings than apprehended by Border Patrol between them. Texas’s Rio Grande Valley Border Patrol Sector measured the most apprehensions, edging out San Diego, which had been number one since June 2024.

Ahead of Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, media have reported many hints about the border and migration policy changes expected to go into effect that afternoon. The incoming president is expected to announce 100 executive orders, many of them cracking down on the border and migration by implementing new policies or undoing Biden administration policies.

Stephen Miller, the anti-immigration official who will serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy, intends a blitz of initiatives that, he hopes, will overwhelm migrants’ rights advocates’ capacity to oppose them by “flooding the zone,” the New York Times reported. Miller is accompanying this with tight secrecy in the run-up to the policy changes’ announcement.

In addition to the promised “mass deportation” campaign discussed in this Update’s next section, the upcoming changes may include the following measures.

Some of these measures, like “Remain in Mexico,” safe third country agreements, and Title 42 expulsions, would require other nations to cooperate, for instance by accepting returns of other nations’ migrants. The incoming president has signaled his readiness to impose steep tariffs on imports of goods from those nations, especially Mexico, if they do not cooperate. A Peterson Institute for International Economics study recalled that exports account for about 40 percent of Mexico’s GDP, and 80 percent of those go to the United States. It concluded that “for Mexico, a 25 percent tariff would be catastrophic” and would likely spur more U.S.-bound migration.

The measures listed here, especially the mass deportation effort described below, would be expensive. The incoming administration and key members of the Republican Party’s two-house congressional majority continue to discuss details of a giant spending package for border and migration controls. Under Senate rules, this so-called “reconciliation” package could pass the chamber without a single Democratic vote, avoiding the filibuster rule by sticking to provisions that have budgetary impact.

“Early estimates of border funding needed have come in at $85 billion or higher,” Bloomberg Government reported. The “reconciliation” bill appears likely to begin moving in Congress by the end of February or early March.

Noem, the governor of South Dakota, promised Homeland Security Committee senators that she would fully implement Donald Trump’s border and migration agenda, several times referring to migrants at the border as an “invasion” and the border itself as a “war zone.” As governor, the New York Times recalled, Noem sent contingents of South Dakota National Guard personnel to the border, but did not deploy the Guard after her state was hit by heavy flooding.

The outgoing Homeland Security secretary,........

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