In the 1998 poker movie Rounders, Matt Damon plays Mike McDermott, a gifted card player who turns a climactic rematch with Teddy KGB after recognizing his opponent’s tell. Teddy has a ritual with Oreo cookies that gives away information about the strength of his hand. Once Mike sees the pattern, he knows something Teddy does not want him to know.

Iran may have found President Donald Trump’s Oreo.

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The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory if Iran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, even privately floating that he might walk away without a nuclear deal. Tehran’s response was to raise its price. Iran demanded billions of dollars in U.S. payments, removal of American troops from the region, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, and other concessions.

That is exactly what one would expect if Iran believes it has learned how badly Trump wants the game to end.

Last month, I argued in these pages that Iran was treating the confrontation over Hormuz as a repeated game: probe Washington, observe the response, adjust, and probe again. Every threat, pause, strike, concession, and deadline teaches the other side........

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