menu_open Columnists
We use cookies to provide some features and experiences in QOSHE

More information  .  Close

America’s wildfire risk data quietly puts millions of homes in danger

9 6
30.01.2026

Burned trees stand next to the ruins of a house in Altadena, California. | Ali Matin/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

A lot of us might assume that most homes that are destroyed by wildfires were in obvious, high fire-risk areas, like on the edge of forests that frequently burn. But wildfires are a faster-growing and much closer threat than we may realize — burning in places that rarely used to see them.

For instance, many homes that remain in the neighborhoods that burned in the historic Los Angeles wildfires last year are still considered as having “low risk” in assessments from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) despite the charred remains of their neighbors showing how vulnerable they might be to embers blowing from miles away.

It raises an urgent question: Do we actually know which homes face the most danger of burning?

Key takeaways

More homes may be in danger of wildfires than previously thought as wildfire threats grow. Conventional wildfire risk models, such as FEMA’s National Risk Index, often use historical data that fails to account for housing dynamics and future changes to the climate. A new generation of models are revealing where fire hazards were underestimated and can calculate threats down to individual homes rather than broad census tracts One company, ZestyAI, found more than 3,000 properties in areas burned by the 2025 Los Angeles fires faced elevated fire dangers despite being labeled as “low” or “no risk” by FEMA. Better risk models can help communities target their efforts to reduce fire risk and encourage insurers to cover areas once thought as no-go zones. However, some developers are worried higher risk ratings will damage property values or lead to loss of insurance coverage.

Government risk maps are too coarse for the way wildfire works now. But new tools powered by AI are giving us a clearer picture. They could reshape how we understand the dangers that lie........

© Vox