America’s fragile child care system relies heavily on immigrant workers. Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown could cripple it.

Since 2011, federal guidance has advised Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents against conducting enforcement in “sensitive locations” like hospitals, churches, schools and day care centers. On his first day back in office, Trump removed these longstanding protections, marking a major change from his first term as president. Now — with ICE officials charged with increasing their daily arrests from a few hundred people to upward of 1,500, and top immigration agents demoted for not deporting people fast enough — day care centers stand as direct targets.

The crackdown on immigrants threatens to upend an industry where foreign-born staff make up one-fifth of the workforce nationally — and nearly half in cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Jose, California. Research led by the New American Economy think tank estimated that over 200,000 undocumented immigrants work in child care and day care services. The new, harsher enforcement comes at a particularly precarious time, as major employers phase out remote work policies, leaving parents with an intensifying scramble for child care.

Child care programs already have an employee turnover rate 65 percent higher than average. The pay helps explain why: As of 2023, the median hourly wage for full-time, year-round child care workers was just $14.60, and the field ranked as the 10th lowest-paid occupation out of nearly 750 jobs across the economy, according to one analysis. The Trump crackdown could make everything even worse.

Jessica Brown, an economist at the University of South Carolina, has studied how earlier bouts of immigration........

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