On the campaign trail, Donald Trump relished the chance to assure voters that the 2022 overturn of Roe v. Wade meant people did not need to worry about more federal abortion restrictions, since it was all effectively moot and now up to the states. As Election Day grew closer, Trump insisted he’d be “great for women and their reproductive rights” and even that he would “not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances.” His flip-flopping worked: Most voters believed that Trump would not be a threat to abortion rights and that he would not prioritize the issue if elected.

Since winning, Trump and his transition team have aimed to keep abortion out of the news and maintain the appearance of moderation to avoid losing broader support. While Trump did tap two anti-abortion doctors to oversee the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Food and Drug Administration (Dr. Mehmet Oz and Marty Makary, respectively), his Health and Human Services secretary pick is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is on record supporting abortion rights. Trump’s team also rejected naming Roger Severino to a top HHS post, primarily because his team thought his anti-abortion views would be too controversial. (Anti-abortion leaders lobbied heavily for Severino.)

On his first day back in office Trump sought to downplay reproductive rights: None of his first dozens of executive orders directly pertained to abortion, though his anti-transgender decree did invoke the idea that human personhood begins at conception, a key tenet of the “fetal personhood” wing of the anti-abortion movement. Trump will also be in California on Friday, skipping the chance to speak at the March for Life rally in Washington, DC, which he addressed as president in 2020.

But this more evasive period will soon run headlong into the reality of Congress, litigation, and executive governing.

His administration will have to weigh in on pending abortion rights lawsuits, legislation dealing with new abortion restrictions, and he’ll have to appoint more judges. (In his first term, Trump appointed one of the most anti-abortion judges in the country — Matthew Kacsmaryk.) In the months ahead, as Congress sends bills to his desk and courts issue more fetal personhood rulings, Trump’s carefully crafted moderate image on abortion will face mounting pressure. While he likely does not want to wade back into the messy world of abortion politics — an issue he has never held strong convictions about — he’ll soon have to.

The anti-abortion strategy

Emerging statements from anti-abortion advocates suggest that most are prepared to be lenient with the new president, accepting compromises so Trump can continue to claim that he signed no new federal abortion ban. Activists see it in their interest to accommodate the president so as to stay within his good graces, and influence policy........

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