After nearly three years of fighting, it will take more than a day to end the war in Ukraine, as even Donald Trump now appears to acknowledge. Though the president-elect repeatedly vowed during his campaign that he would end the conflict in 24 hours after returning to the White House, Trump has more recently said he thinks six months is a realistic timetable. His nominee for special envoy for Ukraine, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, is a bit more optimistic, believing a deal in 100 days is feasible.

News of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza, negotiated in part by representatives of both Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s diplomatic teams, may raise hopes of a similar breakthrough for Ukraine. But as even Trump himself has acknowledged, ending Europe’s first major land war in decades is likely to be much more difficult.

That’s because neither side is close to achieving its aims. For Russia, that’s the replacement of Ukraine’s pro-Western government with a more pliant one, or what President Vladimir Putin has called the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of a country he views as within Moscow’s rightful sphere of influence. For Ukraine, it’s the full removal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and areas in the east of the country that were already occupied before the full-scale invasion in 2022.

That’s not to say that the war won’t end until one side or the other achieves total victory — few wars do. Leaders of both countries have suggested they might settle for something less. But whether or not a deal to stop the fighting can be reached depends on the answers to three questions.

The first is whether Ukraine, and even more so Russia, is interested in pursuing a ceasefire. The second is whether an agreement exists that will allow Ukraine to feel confident about its future security, but isn’t a complete nonstarter for the Russians. The third is just what Trump, a consistent critic of US support for Ukraine, is willing to do to pressure the two sides into taking a deal — and whether it will be enough.

Jaw-jaw or war-war?

As Trump prepares to take office, Russian forces, which currently control about 20 percent of Ukraine, are advancing at their fastest rate since the earliest days of the war, albeit at an enormous cost in human lives and materiel.

Russia seized more than 1,600 square miles of Ukrainian territory in 2024, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, while suffering around 427,000 troops killed or injured (about 40 per square mile). Ukraine’s biggest victory in 2024 was the surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk province over the summer. But this has not slowed down Russia’s advance within Ukraine itself. In fact, it may have actually helped by stretching Ukraine’s defensive lines thin. And thanks in part to an influx of thousands of North Korean troops, the Russians are slowly taking back territory in Kursk as well.

Early in the war, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted that the full return of all of the country’s internationally recognized territory was “not up to negotiations.” But the battlefield situation — as well as the result of the US presidential election — appears to have led to a slight softening, or at least a shift in emphasis.

In more recent statements, Zelenskyy has suggested that if Ukraine were given adequate security guarantees, it could agree to end the “hot phase” of the war. Kyiv would then seek to recover the rest of its territory through diplomatic means. His people largely back this shift: Polls show that this year, for the first time, more Ukrainians favor negotiations to end the war rather than fighting on until victory.

During the election, much of the conversation around Trump’s Ukraine plans focused on how he would manage to pressure the Ukrainians to agree to a deal while Russian troops were still in their territory. But today, the better question may be whether Russia is open to negotiations.

Officially, the Kremlin says it is open to talks, but is sticking to Russia’s maximalist demands. “I don’t think it’s feasible to negotiate when........

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