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A tale of two ceasefires

6 20
22.03.2025
A local resident stands in the courtyard of his house while smoke rises from a fire following a strike on the outskirts of Odessa on March 11, 2025. | Oleksandr Gimanovoleksandr Gimanov/AFP via Getty Images

Put the Nobel Peace Prize on hold for just a bit.

President Donald Trump came into office promising a swift end to two wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He has taken a radically different approach to both conflicts than Joe Biden, and in some cases produced results.

What he has not done is end either war. In fact, this week, resolution to both conflicts seemed farther off than ever.

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza, which came into effect shortly before Trump took office, shattered after Israel launched airstrikes that killed more than 400 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and resumed large-scale ground operations. Hamas has also resumed firing rockets into central Israel, and the situation is rapidly sliding back into full-scale war.

Also this week, during a phone call with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively rejected a proposed 30-day ceasefire — which Ukraine had earlier, under US pressure, agreed to. Russia and Ukraine did agree to a mutual halt in attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, but this has not stopped mass drone attacks from both sides, including a Russian attack on a hospital that took place just hours after the pause was announced.

The two sides will hold talks — via US intermediaries — in Saudi Arabia next week, and the Trump team is reportedly hoping to rapidly move toward a full ceasefire, but stark differences remain between the two sides’ negotiating positions. So, barring a miracle at the negotiating table, the war in Ukraine doesn’t seem any closer to a resolution now than it did in January. The war in Gaza seems farther from one.

What does this tell us? First, an obvious but important point: Ending wars is harder than starting them. Hamas and Israel still have essentially incompatible demands for a final ceasefire. Putin has given no indication, either in his public statements or in US intelligence assessments, that he is interested in ending the war with anything other than complete Ukrainian capitulation.

It would be unrealistic to expect any American administration to end two intractable foreign wars in its first two months. If Trump is being held to that standard, it’s only because he himself suggested during his campaign that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours,” a promise he said this week may have been “a little bit........

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