The TikTok ban seems imminent. The Supreme Court on Friday upheld a law that would spell the end of TikTok as we know it in the United States, and now all parties involved are freaking out. Influencers are fleeing to rival platforms, including Xiaohongshu, a China-based app also known as RedNote. Politicians, even the ones who initially supported the ban, are trying to delay it. TikTok employees are surely wondering what they’ll do at work next week.

Others, however, are wondering if a future without TikTok could actually be a great thing for America. The complete demise of TikTok would mean one of the largest social media-slash-entertainment platforms is effectively out of the picture. That would leave billions of hours of attention free and millions of people craving new content, preferably short, viral videos that are microtargeted to each individual user and continuously update the cultural zeitgeist in weird unexpected ways.

That’s what made TikTok so popular in the first place. If some other upstart platform has a better idea, though, the United States is open for business. And one app falling and being replaced by another would be nothing new.

This kind of innovation has driven the social media industry, like a flywheel, since its inception in the early aughts. A platform, like MySpace, becomes popular and dominates attention spans for a few years, before falling out of fashion as newer platforms, like Facebook, show up with better features. Innovation spins the wheel, but boredom, cultural shifts, and enshittification — how platforms start out serving users and end up serving their own purposes — slows it down again.

In TikTok’s case, there are obviously other forces at play: geopolitics and the fickle authority of the US government. It’s still unclear if the government will enforce the ban or whether TikTok might find a way to maintain an American operation. Nevertheless, if it comes to pass, the end of TikTok would not necessarily mean that hundreds of millions of its users would return to the warm embrace of Instagram or YouTube, both of whom have comparable short-form video products. In fact, millions of soon-to-be former TikTok users are joining platforms like RedNote in order to protest the TikTok ban as well as the power of Big Tech.

There are a lot of reasons why RedNote probably won’t become the next TikTok. Chief among them is the fact that Chinese government censors aren’t thrilled by the influx of American users and whatever politically sensitive content they might bring with them. It’s entirely possible that these “TikTok refugees” will find themselves kicked off RedNote in the coming weeks.

That means the race to become the next TikTok starts now. Sure, plenty of TikTok users will retreat to familiar, aging platforms owned by Meta and Google. The TikTok ban also stands to inject the decentralized network of servers known as the fediverse that powers platforms like Bluesky and Mastodon with millions more users in search of their new........

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