Soon after the fall of Bashar al Assad, many security experts rushed to write off Russia's military presence in Syria. The fate of Hmeymim air base and Tartus naval facility—Russia's only military installations outside the former USSR—seemed tied to that of the deposed regime. Satellite imagery showed Russian military personnel hastily packing equipment at Hmeymim, making the complete end of Russia’s presence in Syria appear certain.

The collapse caught Moscow off guard, triggering a swift narrative shift in Russian media and official responses. A December 9 evening news broadcast on Russia's Channel One set the tone: "While the rapid change of power came as a surprise, what's truly astounding is the complete paralysis of will shown by Syrian leadership and military." President Vladimir Putin himself reinforced this narrative during his annual Direct Line broadcast, noting that "Aleppo fell to just 350 militants, while 30,000 government troops and pro-Iranian units withdrew without a fight."

Yet Putin was quick to reject suggestions of Russian defeat. He maintained that Moscow had "essentially accomplished its objectives" in Syria, preventing the establishment of an "Islamic caliphate" and keeping terrorists from seizing power. Significantly, he emphasized that the new leadership in Damascus should not be labeled as terrorist—a careful diplomatic positioning that would prove crucial in subsequent negotiations.

On December 20, it emerged that Colonel General Nikolai........

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