Haven't we seen this movie before? Voters, weary of a Republican president whose foreign or domestic policies don't seem to be delivering as promised, seem on the verge of a massive rejection of his party.

Polls show Democrats surging. The generic ballot — which party's candidates would you favor for the House of Representatives? — shows Democrats far ahead of Republicans. Statewide polls show Democrats ahead in large states that had voted Republican for president and threatening incumbents in historically Republican states such as Kansas and Nebraska.

That's pretty much the picture today. Donald Trump's job approval has slipped below 40 percent, below his numbers at the end of September 2018 and similar to George W. Bush's in September 2006.

Republicans trail in the generic vote by about as much as in 2018 and by wider margins in 2006.

All of which provides a strong basis for the professional prognosticators' predictions that Democrats will overturn the Republicans' current narrow majority in the House and some justification for those who say they have a majority chance of gaining the four seats that would give them a majority in the Senate.

But there are a couple of caveats here. Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini points out that polls in the last four congressional elections have understated Republicans' actual election performance by wide margins in the summer, then narrowed in the fall. But this year, there is little sign of such narrowing yet.

But perhaps the polls are consistently understating Republican support, as analyst Nate Silver says they have in the last three presidential elections. Many pollsters report it's much harder to reach Republican respondents, who tend to mistrust media pollsters.

And this year, many Republicans seem unhappy with the president and his party. Does that mean they're just unwilling to be polled or that they will skip voting as........

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