I've been asked repeatedly to predict what happens Tuesday. I've looked at the polls, the historical patterns, the candidates. And I've reached a conclusion: my crystal ball has never been fuzzier.

The conventional math says Republicans should lose ground. Midterms punish whoever holds the White House. That's the pattern. But there's a complication nobody seems able to factor into the equation.

The other side keeps nominating whackjobs.

The real question on the ballot this year was never simply whether voters are unhappy with Washington. It's whether they're unhappy enough to hand power to people whose ideas are even further removed from common sense than the ones currently in charge.

I have a good friend. Decent heart, intelligent in most respects. Let's call him Daren. Daren genuinely believes he's being compassionate every time he embraces an idea that makes no sense on contact. He confuses good intentions with good outcomes. He thinks disagreement is cruelty and skepticism is extremism. And when the policies he supports produce the consequences anyone could have predicted, he concludes we simply haven't tried hard enough yet.

Daren isn't the enemy. He's the illustration. America has an enormous number of good-hearted people who've confused compassion with surrendering their own judgment. You can have a good heart and still have catastrophically bad........

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