CNN's data analyst Harry Enten said something interesting last week. He said Republicans have a stubborn habit of outperforming their September polling in the states that decide control of the Senate. He is right, and he reiterated a point I have been making for some time that leads me to believe all might not be lost for the GOP in the Senate.

In the major 2024 races, Republicans outran their September polls by nine points in Iowa, by 6 in Ohio, and by 5 in Michigan. A skeptic will say that was 2024, with President Donald Trump on the ballot. As Harry noted, go back to 2018, the first midterm of Trump's first term, and you get the same pattern. Republicans beat their September polls by six in Iowa, 6 in Ohio, and 8 in Michigan. Across 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2024, Republicans outperformed their September polling by at least five points in every one of those states. The Democratic leads in those same races right now sit under that margin.

The reason is not magic, and it is not fraud. It is who answers the phone. There's an old joke that a........

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