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LILLEY: Polls show why Conservatives don't want an election right now

Liberals leading in most parts of the country and in every demographic group

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When you hear that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives don’t want an election anytime soon, it might be due to the polling.

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The latest Leger poll for Postmedia not only gives Mark Carney and the Liberals a 14-point lead over Poilievre and the Conservatives, the Liberals also lead in all demographic groups and in every region of the country save the prairies.

LILLEY: Polls show why Conservatives don't want an election right now Back to video

In a survey of 1,627 Canadians conducted from Feb. 27 through March 2, via an online panel, 49% said that they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow compared to 35% who would vote Conservative.

With the NDP languishing at 5% voter support nationally and the Bloc Quebecois at just 25% in Quebec, such a result – if it came true – at the ballot box would deliver a massive majority government for Carney and the Liberals.

With Leger pegging the Liberals at 37% in Alberta and 39% across Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Carney’s party is currently polling better than their 2025 election results in those regions.

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Leger also has the Liberals at 68% in Atlantic Canada, 48% in Quebec, 52% in Ontario and 50% in British Columbia. The Liberals also lead the Conservatives among men – 46% to 40% – and among women 53% to 31%.

While the Liberals have relied on older voters for much of their support over the last year, this latest poll has them leading among every single age group.

Poll shows younger voters moving to Liberals

The Leger poll is not alone in showing younger voters moving to the Liberals. While other polls may show the Conservatives as more competitive with younger voters or even leading, the shift is being seen across most major polling firms.

Which is why the Conservatives have been doing all they can to ensure there is nothing that they do to trigger an election any time soon.

Carney’s polling numbers have been going up ever since the fawning praise he’s received for his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There are many problems with that speech but because it was rightly viewed as being anti-Trump, Canadians responded by loving it and putting more support behind Carney and the Liberals.

As prime minister, Mark Carney hasn’t delivered on new trade deals that see us actually diversify our trade at this point. He also, despite many promises that he knew how to deal with Trump, hasn’t been able to secure a deal to drop American tariffs on Canadian goods – in fact, tariffs have gone up.

Animosity towards Trump swaying voters

None of that seems to matter to voters at this point, the majority of whom seem to base their vote not on results for Canada but animosity towards Trump.

Over the past few months due to the ICE controversy in the United States, the trade animosity between Ottawa and Washington, and now the war on Iran, Donald Trump has dominated news headlines. When that happens in Canada, the Liberals rise and the Conservatives fall.

When the issues voters are focused on include the affordability crisis, the economy, immigration or crime then the Conservatives rise up. Those issues are real concerns for Canadians and none of the problems associated with those issues are the result of Donald Trump or his policies, they are the result of domestic policies.

The problem is these issues are dwarfed in the media coverage and minds of Canadians compared to the coverage of Trump – which only helps the Liberals.

Polls are snapshots in time, a look in the rearview mirror as to how voters felt a few days ago or a few weeks ago. It’s always important to remember that in politics voters are fickle, polls can change, and campaigns matter.

The Liberals riding high now should remember that just 15 months ago they were even lower in the polls with the Conservatives well in the lead. Politics is a funny business and there is plenty that could change by the time Canadians are casting their ballots.

blilley@postmedia.com

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