For a couple of weeks now I’ve wrestled with what to do about the unique data coming from Frank Graves, one of the country’s most prominent pollsters for decades. Could it be true? Should I just leave it be?

Graves, like all pollsters, is accustomed to the blame-the-messenger criticism that comes when his findings rankle. But lately, and particularly in recent days, the comments have taken on a menacing toxicity, something other pollsters wouldn’t often experience.

The reason: Graves tells me his findings suggest “there is a reasonable chance he” – meaning Pierre Poilievre, and by extension his Conservative Party – “might lose the election now.”

You read that right.

Graves believes that the party that has been riding high, that almost everyone (including him) has been conceding for more than a year would take power in a landslide, isn’t a sure bet any longer. In so doing, the EKOS Research Associates founder has stuck his neck way, way, way out there in the polling universe.

“I’m not saying he is going to lose,” he said. “But it has gotten tight.”

Graves’ daily survey results started to shift noticeably last month, when he had Conservatives 25 points........

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