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Amit Shah won’t lose sleep over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam. Bengal is different

The scenarios in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry should explain why the BJP is so focused on West Bengal.

Next month’s assembly elections in four states and a Union territory may turn out to be the last rodeo for several prominent leaders. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has a huge responsibility on his 80-year-old shoulders. A loss in this election would mean that the Left would not be in power in any state for the first time since 1977. This is not how Vijayan would like to be remembered. The problem is that even if the Left Democratic Front (LDF) beats a decade of anti-incumbency, Vijayan may not get a third term. His party has maintained that the next CM would be decided after the results—that is, if the LDF retains power.

Former Tamil Nadu CM EK Palaniswami of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has had the better of his detractors and challengers within the party. This election is crucial for the 71-year-old and for a party struggling in the absence of the star power of MG Ramachandran or Jayalalithaa. The party lost the 2021 Assembly election. Another loss is likely to set off another round of implosions in the AIADMK, which the party may not recover from.

Puducherry CM N Rangaswamy of the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) also has high stakes in this election. It is also essentially a one-man party. A loss in this election—and the fact that Rangaswamy would be 80 by the next—would set the party on a slippery path.

You can trust Union Home Minister Amit Shah to keep in mind all these factors. Even as the Bharatiya Janata Party puts its best foot forward in the coming assembly polls, the party’s chief strategist would know that it is a win-win situation for the BJP in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. The........

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