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Chandigarh: The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a serious operational dilemma as it fast-tracks the acquisition of 114 additional French Rafales under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme to shore up its depleted combat squadron strength, which has fallen to 29 from a sanctioned 42 squadrons.

While the 4.5-generation Rafales would to some extent boost the IAF’s fighter numbers, a cross-section of veterans and analysts believe their induction could also leave the service increasingly behind the ‘technological curve’ of the air war India may eventually have to fight with China and Pakistan, both of which are already fielding, or moving towards acquiring, 5th-generation stealth fighters.

The Rafale buy, now at an advanced stage of negotiations, under which 98 fighters would be constructed locally through technology transfer from Dassault, is estimated at around $35–40 billion and would be the IAF’s most expensive combat aircraft acquisition ever.

But the scale of the IAF’s technological disadvantage is stark when set against China’s growing stealth-fighter fleet. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) operates these indigenously designed and built fighters in substantial numbers, with open-source estimates suggesting around 500 J-20s and over 50 J-35 variants.

These numbers are expected to proliferate as production of both fighter types expands. Alongside, China’s close strategic and military ally Pakistan is moving towards acquiring the J-35AE, with deliveries of 40-odd of these export-model aircraft reportedly expected to begin by year-end and be completed shortly thereafter.

For the IAF, the implications are serious: it could face stealth fighters from both China and Pakistan under the two-front contingency that Indian military planners have long warned about, while relying on 4/4.5-generation aircraft that make up its entire combat fleet.

Against this rapidly changing regional air-power balance, the IAF will begin inducting 114 Rafales, possibly around 2029, assuming the contract is concluded on schedule, although the larger domestically built tranche will take considerably longer to materialise. Industry sources said that these Rafales are likely to be in the F4 configuration, a significantly more advanced standard than the 36 F3 Rafales presently in IAF service, with improved radar, electronic warfare (EW) and sensor fusion connectivity, enhanced weapons integration and the ability to operate alongside dedicated ‘wingman’ unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

Also read: Rafale Returns? A Decade Later, India is Back to the Same Fighter Deal at Four Times the Price

The F4s can also be upgraded to the F5 standard, presently under........

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