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President Donald Trump’s televised address to the American nation seems to suggest that he is preparing to walk away from the war in a few weeks after claiming some imagined victory over Iran.

Trump was his usual delusional self, but a few things stood out in his address.

Though he did say the US would hit Iran very hard in the next two weeks, there was no mention of invading Iran with US ground troops. He claimed a decisive victory over Iran with the boast that the latter’s navy and airforce were nearly decimated. However, at the same time he did not insist that the US military was committed to forcing open the Strait of Hormuz.

In fact, he clearly suggested that the countries, mostly US allies, who are affected by the blocking of Hormuz should essentially engage with Iran on the question of resuming traffic in Hormuz.

Trump said the US was self sufficient in oil and tried to assure Americans that they are not affected by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. He even offered to supply oil other nations, mostly allies.

Of course, what Trump avoided admitting was that the Americans were paying a much higher price for oil even if the US was largely self sufficient. Higher global prices are transmitting equally to the US. Besides, the US depends on the cargoes from the Strait of Hormuz for fertilisers whose prices are up 40% in that country already.

So Trump’s claim of a decisive victory over Iran coupled with no mention of ground invasion and calling on allies to independently manage the opening of Hormuz signals he may walk away from the war in two or three weeks.

Trump openly betrayed his worry over the falling stock markets. The strategic community in the US has been observing Trump’s obsession with stocks and commodity markets. He has, from time to time, made statements about ending the war to lift market sentiments.

In his address he did express satisfaction that the stock markets had somewhat recovered after falling sharply. He also spoke about the oil price rise too being under control. He clearly seems conscious of the oil prices as he had specifically promised the Americans that he would have gas prices after coming to power. So controlling retail oil and gas prices seems extremely important to Trump. This itself may be an indication that he wants an exit from the war with oil prices and stock markets stabilising at some reasonable levels.

Overall, there is an impression that he wants to cut his losses and walk away. International Relations expert Professor John Mearsheimer of the Chicago University says the biggest sign of Trump wanting an exit soon is that even the most zealously hawkish Congressman, Lindsay Graham, who was campaigning for the total destruction of Iran, wants peace negotiations.

Most sensible strategic thinkers in the US say in spite of bombarding Iran from the air everyday, Trump faces a strategic defeat as none of his initial objectives is anywhere near being met, whether a regime change or degrading Iran’s nuclear or missiles capabilities. If anything, he surprised everyone by saying he never really sought a regime change in Iran! Mearsheimer says today Iran is holding all the cards and Trump does not even have a full deck.

If indeed it turns out that Trump wants an exit from the war after conducting some bombing raids on Iran in the next two weeks, Iran may continue to have some control over Strait of Hormuz. It is possible mediating nations like China, Russia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan may work out an arrangement with Iran to allow traffic on payment of a fee which could go towards compensating Iran for war reparations.

What will Israel say?

The only question is how Israel will respond to this new situation. Its position will be considerably weakened in the region as its Great Israel project is predicted on decimating Iran and converting it into another Syria controlled by various ethnic war lords. For Israel that dream is fast fading away into oblivion. Mearsheimer says Israel is in a very weak position as Iran has nearly defanged its air defence systems which will take time to rebuild. “At present Iran is getting 80% of its missiles through Israel’s air defence,” he said in an TV discussion.

After a month of war, the objectives of Trump and Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu have begun to diverge clearly. The Israeli people want a do-or-die battle with Iran but the Americans have little stake in continuing the war. Surveys show only 14% Americans support a ground invasion and a prolonged war with Iran.

The sharply diverging concerns of the Americans and the people of Israel is likely to eventually stop this senseless project and rescue the world economy from crashing beyond repair. The International Energy Agency has said this war, if continued, could prove far worse than the oil shock of the 1970s.

The one critical difference between then and now is that the global economy had much more juice left for growth and jobs recovery then. And it did recover through the 1980s and 1990s. The world economy is extremely fragile today having been buffeted by multiple crises, more recently by COVID. There is sub-par growth without increase in jobs all round the world. A prolonged war hitting the world with a twin energy and food crises could prove to be the last nail on the coffin.

© The Wire