Quebec polls in recent years—decades, even—have consistently shown that if a referendum on sovereignty were held today, a clear majority of voters would vote against it.

Is that certainty misleading? There are indications, after all, that the Parti Québécois’ rising popularity since 2023 coincided with renewed enthusiasm among independence supporters. Support for the PQ increased after its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, pledged, in 2023, to hold a third referendum on sovereignty at the same time as the governing Coalition Avenir Québec began to falter.

Many CAQ supporters have long been sympathetic to sovereignty but were willing to set that preference aside to back a party that prioritized Quebec’s autonomy within Canada rather than outright independence. With the sovereignty question now back on the front burner, some of those voters are back in play for the PQ. The data, however, suggests that the overall base of support for sovereignty itself has not grown significantly: it remains solid but still falls well short of a majority of Quebec voters.

In fact, resistance to sovereignty runs deeper than those numbers alone suggest. When voters are asked not only about sovereignty as an abstract question but about the prospect of holding a referendum during the first mandate of a PQ government, opposition hardens sharply and spreads across virtually every demographic group.

Today, we release the second part of the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, commissioned by 338Canada and The Walrus. The survey was conducted January 9–10, 2026, among a random sample of 1,128 Quebec voters.

Let us begin with the classic top-line question before moving into more granular results. When asked, “If a referendum were held on Quebec sovereignty, would you vote for or against Quebec sovereignty?” 54 percent of respondents say they would vote against sovereignty, while 35 percent say they would vote in favour. Another 10 percent remain unsure (the numbers........

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