Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party and currently the frontrunner in the polls, faces a complex political dilemma ahead of the October 27 election.

The bloc he spearheads, which includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s joint B’Yachad faction, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and The Democrats (the united Labor-Meretz list led by Yair Golan), is projected by most surveys to win 58 or 59 seats. That is tantalizingly close to yet still short of a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset.

If the polls are right, Eisenkot would lack the seats to form a coalition backed by a parliamentary majority. His preferred move is clear: win over additional voters from the right to comfortably cross the 61-seat threshold. However, if that fails, an alternative route exists.

Israeli law does not require 61 lawmakers to swear in a government; a simple majority of those present for the vote is sufficient. A government could theoretically be established by a vote, say, of 59 to 50.

Naturally, a majority of 61 or more remains preferable, as it provides a stable legislative foundation to navigate Israel’s complex realities — particularly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party’s lengthy grip on power. But in recent weeks, Yashar has been quietly preparing for a contingency scenario: swearing in a government with 58 or 59 MKs. The consensus taking shape around Eisenkot is that even a fragile minority government would be preferable to Netanyahu remaining in office.

Those close to Eisenkot speak of a firm determination to end Netanyahu’s rule. Even if a minority government struggles to survive, and even if the Knesset dissolves shortly afterward to trigger yet another election, the political landscape would have fundamentally shifted. Notably, the caretaker prime minister in such a  scenario, until another election is held, would be Eisenkot, not Netanyahu.

The Israeli public generally dislikes the prospect of a minority government, and it is easy to see why. A coalition supported by 59 seats represents, very roughly, only about 49 percent of the electorate. Critics could easily argue that such a government lacks a sufficient public mandate to make any significant moves.

But what is the alternative? If Eisenkot narrowly misses being able to form a majority government and Netanyahu remains a whopping roughly 10 seats shy of a majority, Israel could be dragged straight into another grueling election campaign. Throughout that interim period, Netanyahu would continue serving as caretaker prime minister. If his right-wing bloc musters around 50 seats, he would be leading the country while representing a mere 41% of voters.

Hence the dilemma that Eisenkot could place before the public: Is a minority government supported by 58 or 59 lawmakers inherently less legitimate than a caretaker prime minister whose backing is substantially smaller?

Israel already endured a prolonged version of this situation between 2019 and 2021. Through four consecutive deadlocked........

© The Times of Israel