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Israel’s strike on Iran: How we got here, what we don’t know and what happens next

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yesterday

Israel’s strike on Iran starting early Friday morning followed a dizzying 24 hours in which the international community rebuked Iran for its nuclear malfeasance, Iranian officials said they would retaliate by accelerating nuclearization, and signs piled up of a potentially imminent strike — along with warnings that Israel could be simply rattling sabers at a pivotal moment.

In the hours before the attack, experts in the region said they thought Israel’s aggressive posture — which prompted the United States to begin moving some personnel out of the Middle East — could have been meant to extract concessions from Iran in its nuclear talks with the Trump administration. They noted that while tensions are rising between Iran and the West over Iran’s failure to abide by past nuclear agreements, no one is yet taking concrete measures against Iran.

But the situation was fluid enough to worry longtime observers of the region. The threat of military pressure can take on a life of its own, Shira Efron, the research director for the Israel Policy Forum, who has advised Israeli governments on defense issues, said before Israel made its move.

“We can argue that the Israeli kinetic threat to attack Iran could be pressuring the sides to come to an agreement” that Israel favors, which would be the total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, she said. The problem with such pressure is that Israel can’t control the outcomes, she said.

“I would advise Israel to sit aside, let the US try to take their time in terms of trying to reach an agreement,” she said. She switched to Hebrew to cite a rabbinic saying: “The work of the righteous is done by others.”

President Donald Trump on Thursday said talks with Iran to forge a deal on its nuclear capabilities were still ongoing. His top envoy negotiating conflict de-escalation, Steve Witkoff, was due in Oman early next week to continue talks with Iran.

“We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue!” Trump said on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns, on Thursday. “My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran.”

He’d said the same thing earlier in the day. “I’d love to avoid the conflict,” Trump said at a press conference, asked about the prospects of an Israeli attack. “Iran’s going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher, meaning, they’re going to have to give us some things they’re not willing to give us right now.”

Witkoff is seeking a deal that would allow Iran and other countries access to uranium enriched to non-weaponization levels at an offshore facility. Iran is insisting that such a facility be in Iran.

Trump’s oft-stated lack of enthusiasm for military action appeared to put a cramp on any Israeli plans to strike Iran; Israel by most estimations needs US backup to carry out a deeply effective strike.

But Israel has increasingly been seeking to show that it can act alone. And Israeli officials have told their US counterparts that Israel is ready to strike, CBS reported on Thursday, citing unnamed officials.

Asked about the imminence of an Israeli strike, Trump said, “I don’t want to say ‘imminent,’ but it looks like it’s something that could very well........

© The Times of Israel