One would think Iran would be happy with the new postwar reality.

After successfully using strikes on neighbors and threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to spook Donald Trump into halting his military campaign in April, the US president signed a memorandum of understanding that achieved none of the US-Israeli war aims, imposed a stop to Israel’s fight against Hezbollah, required no concessions on Iran’s nuclear program, and opened the door for billions of dollars of sanctions relief.

The regime in Tehran is reasonably secure, its proxies have survived, and after withstanding over a month of heavy fire, its regional position is stronger than it was before the war.

During negotiations, Iran’s leaders were able to bask in Trump calling them “very rational people” who are “nice to deal with.”

Now they seem to be doing everything they can to convince Trump they are anything but.

Trump’s main achievement with the MOU was getting the Iranians to agree to open Hormuz, but on July 7, Tehran struck three commercial oil tankers in the vital strait, leading to US strikes against dozens of Iranian military sites.

Iran could have let the flare-up end there, but it escalated, launching missiles and drones that it said hit 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Now Trump is singing a different tune. He raised the possibility that US-Iran MOU “is over” and called the same  Iranian leaders “scum” and “vicious, violent people.” And he said on Monday that the US was reinstating its blockade on Iranian oil.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to escalate, declaring Hormuz totally closed and targeting Bahrain, Jordan and two tankers associated with the United Arab Emirates early Tuesday alone.

To outsiders, it looks like Iran got 20 at the blackjack table and decided to hit. But for the Islamic Republic, it’s worth the risk of busting the MOU and ceasefire to show the world who holds the cards over the all-important Strait of Hormuz.

Iran “seems to be prioritizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz over avoiding a return to the conflict,” said Annika Ganzeveld of the Critical Threats Project in Washington.

It’s all about that strait

To Iran’s new leadership, there is one result from its recent — and its in eyes, victorious — fight against the US and Israel that stands out above all others.

“Hormuz is the most meaningful achievement of the war for Iran,” said Raz Zimmt, an Iran scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

The strait is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. About a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas passed through the waterway before the war began.

For decades, despite territorial claims by both Iran and Oman, vessels from around the world have traversed the strait freely under a 1973 traffic separation program defining inbound and outbound shipping lanes.

Though freedom of navigation through Hormuz was usually respected, the Islamic Republic has used threats to close it as a bargaining chip, and has attacked ships on multiple occasions, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War.

It was no secret that Iran would try to shut down the vital strait in the event of a US attack on the country in order to inflict pain on the world economy, thereby increasing pressure on the White House to end its campaign.

Days before the start of the US-Israeli campaign in February, Iran temporarily........

© The Times of Israel