While the campaign against the Iranian regime has so far been fought primarily from the air—through precision strikes, intelligence warfare, and the systematic dismantling of strategic capabilities—another dimension is now emerging that could significantly influence the final outcome: the entry of Kurdish militias into the conflict. For many in the Middle East, this moment carries historic significance, linking a broader regional confrontation with a century-old Kurdish national aspiration.

The Kurds, numbering roughly 35 to 40 million people spread across Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, are the largest nation in the world without a state. Over decades, they have developed a formidable military tradition based on guerrilla warfare, mastery of mountainous terrain, high discipline, and deep ideological motivation. Inside Iran, several Kurdish armed organizations operate, most notably groups such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and Komala, some of whose fighters operate from bases in northern Iraq.

Their capabilities should not be underestimated. These are experienced fighters, many of them veterans of the wars against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, who have gained operational experience working alongside Western forces and intelligence networks. They are not a conventional army, but they represent a highly effective ground force in asymmetric warfare: raids, ambushes, disruption of supply lines, seizure of rural areas, and the ability to ignite localized uprisings.

This is precisely where their potential contribution to the broader campaign becomes significant. Airpower can dismantle infrastructure, bases, and command centers, but the collapse of a regime almost always requires pressure on the ground that erodes its control over territory. That is where the Kurds enter the picture. Kurdish incursions into the Kurdish regions of western Iran could trigger a domino effect: first, the loss of Tehran’s effective control over peripheral provinces, and later the expansion of unrest into additional regions.

It is important to be clear: Kurdish militias alone cannot overthrow the Iranian regime. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still possesses enormous power, effective security apparatuses, and the loyalty of parts of the population. However, if Kurdish insurgency aligns with external military pressure, deep economic crisis, and urban protests inside major Iranian cities, it could become a powerful accelerator in the potential collapse of the regime.

Beyond the military dimension, there is also a broader political context. For the Kurds, participation in such a conflict represents a historic opportunity. Their ambitions extend beyond merely replacing the regime in Tehran; many aspire to secure broad autonomy—perhaps even eventual independence—for the Kurdish regions of Iran. This aspiration carries implications not only for Iran but also for Turkey.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is watching developments with intense concern. Any strengthening of Kurdish armed movements in the region is perceived in Ankara as a direct threat to Turkey’s internal stability, where a large Kurdish population resides. Kurdish success in Iran could reignite the broader Kurdish national dream: a continuous Kurdish geopolitical space stretching from Syria to western Iran.

For this reason, Kurdish militias represent far more than a tactical actor in the current conflict. They could become a strategic factor shaping not only the fate of the Iranian regime but also the emerging balance of power across the Middle East. If they manage to establish territorial footholds and ignite wider unrest, they may become the first ground force capable of truly undermining Tehran’s grip on its own territory.

In a war that has so far been fought largely from the skies, it may ultimately be forces emerging from the mountains that determine its outcome.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)